Two of the greatest economists in history failed to see the Wall Street Crash coming – yet one died a millionaire while the other died poor and alone. Tim explores the latest thinking on how to forecast, and what to do when your forecasts don’t work out.

“If at first you don’t succeed, try again.” We’re so often told to learn from our mistakes that it’s become a cliché. But why is it so hard – and how can we do a better job? With stories and ideas from psychology and behavioural economics – as well as aviation, ballet and a TV game show – Tim describes the art of good mistakes.

There are few more important questions that what it takes to make a team work together to solve problems. Tim Harford argues that there’s a reason we find this hard: the most effective teams are often the teams with high levels of social friction. Drawing a vast range of surprising research and his usual compelling stories, Tim leads us on a quest to find out how even a team can overcome the most dramatic internal tensions to triumph.

Data visualisation is all the rage, but how does it lead us astray, and when does it achieve real change? Ranging over two centuries of graphical highs and lows, Tim provides a visually striking statistical survival guide.

When Tim explained some of the fallacies behind the big data boom in the Financial Times, it was the newspaper’s most-read article of the year. Tim argues that big data will only fulfil its potential if we can avoid some very old statistical traps.

Drawing on his number one business bestseller, Tim argues that statistics are a powerful tool, and that most of us should have more confidence that we can make sense of the numbers. He offers simple rules for thinking clearly about data and the world.

Wishful thinking is everywhere in business, politics, and life. If we want to stop fooling ourselves, we need to understand. Tim presents an astonishing story of forgery, coupled with the latest research on wishful thinking.

Tim’s most popular TED talk is about creativity – and about the unexpected benefits of obstacles, interruptions and distractions. With examples from cognitive psychology, complexity science – and of course rock and roll – Tim delivers a powerful and inspirational talk.

We talk a lot about innovation – but what do we really mean? Tim believes we’ve become fixated on a narrow idea of innovation. Ranging across high performance cycling, genetic engineering and military innovation, this is one of Tim’s most popular talks.

Blitzkrieg was invented not by the German army, but by the British. Kodak patented the digital camera. The oil companies were ahead of the curve on solar power. Why do companies turn opportunities into liabilities when faced with disruptive technological change? Tim explores the challenges of innovating in the face of new technology.

It’s not about the printing press – it’s about the paper. We’ve always been dazzled by the latest technological miracle, but Tim argues that we keep making two simple mistakes when we think about how new inventions really transform the world around us. With examples ranging from artificial intelligence and the Gutenberg press to toilet paper and Ikea flat-packs, Harford argues that the most radical changes, good and bad, happen not when we shape new inventions but when new inventions start to shape us.

“To do two things at once is to do neither.” That’s what we’re told, anyway. But nobody seems to have told Albert Einstein, who produced four earth-shaking scientific ideas almost simultaneously in 1905. Tim Harford argues that we’re thinking about multitasking all wrong – as a way to hurry up. If instead we do our multitasking in slow motion, we have a recipe for creative breakthroughs.

Tim has been at the heart of the BBC and FT coverage of the pandemic and has interviewed guests such as Bill Gates, Anthony Fauci and Nobel-laureate Michael Kremer. He is well placed to reflect on current affairs through the lens of the pandemic.

Tim has written extensively on the psychological and organisational responses to crisis – why we struggle to prepare, how we can adapt and find opportunity in crisis, and why we are surprisingly resilient and altruistic in a crisis.